Half the country is in drought, and hay is where it bites

As of September 1, about 59% of the Lower 48 was in drought — just under half of the U.S. and Puerto Rico taken together. The South-Central states got hit with flash drought, and conditions degraded along the North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota borders and into the Northeast.

The pasture numbers are the story

Statewide drought percentages are abstract. Pasture condition is not:

• Colorado — 64% of pasture and rangeland rated poor or very poor, against a five-year average of 23%
• Nebraska — 70%, against an average of 30%
• Wyoming — 75%, against an average of 38%

Large parts of Colorado and Wyoming are in severe to exceptional drought. Severe or extreme conditions run across much of Nebraska, the central and western Dakotas, and patches of southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Kansas.

Roughly doubling the share of poor pasture is not a bad grazing year. It is a year where the grass does not come back in time to matter.

Why hay is the pinch point

Hay demand has been strong, and buyers have been going direct to producers for new-crop supply rather than waiting. In drought-hit areas, limited local availability is holding prices up. Producers close enough to bring hay down from Canada or the Dakotas have more options — and more competition for the loads.

Timely rain has helped in places, and has kept some regions out of genuine forage shortage. That is real, and it is uneven.

The decision nobody wants

Drought math is always the same and never easier for it. You can buy feed, rent grass somewhere else, wean early, or sell cows. Each has a number attached, and the number that matters is what it costs to keep a cow through to a calf that pays.

The wrinkle this year is that cull cows are worth real money and replacements are expensive. Selling is less painful than usual, and buying back is worse. Anyone liquidating on the assumption they will restock next spring should price the restocking first.

What to watch

Fall rain in the central Plains, hay stocks going into winter, and whether drought keeps suppressing heifer retention — which is a national herd question as much as a local one.